Prakash's World

My views on Financial Market of India

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Location: Pune, Maharashtra, India

Monday, February 07, 2005

Market volatile, but fundamentally strong.

Hi all,
This is after long- long time. Since my last blog, markets have kissed 6600 levels twice and have seen consolidation. There have been times when markets have jumped by 400+ points in 5-6 trading session and have dropped at the same rate. But each time there have been correction they have been for good.

First forenight of Jan 2005 was full of panic and downside in the market. Most of the small investor's who offloaded there portfolios towards the end would love to forget the period like a bad dream. But forget such rich experiences will hit you hard again in near future.

India growth story is still in middle and will continue for few more years. FII will keep on investing in Indian markets and they will act a main driving force. But then they are not here for charity, they are here for business. And business means profits. They will book profits from time-to-time and reinvest. They may change there sectorial preferences but will not move funds out of India. Instead you will see more and more FII funds being pumped into Indian economy in coming days.

Till budget and even post budget market is likely to be volatile and moving between 6200 - 6600 levels. A closing past 6700 will start a new round of bull run that will take the markets above 7000-7200 levels. This is likely somewhere during April end /may and will depend upon good monsoon.

My advice is to stay invested. Take fresh positions on every decline of 300-400 points into stock that are fundamentally strong and have lost equally to the index. And sell on rise of 300-400 points. Do not wait for peaks and bottom as you never know when you hit them and a reverse trend starts.


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